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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 26A
2016-10-04 19:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 041754 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 ...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW EXPECTED TO HIT FAR EASTERN CUBA HARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 74.3W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti * Seven Mile Bridge to south of Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located in the Windward Passage near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). On this track the eye of Matthew will move over the extreme portion of eastern Cuba later this afternoon. A turn toward the north- northwest is expected by Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew is expected to move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Data from the Cuban Meteorological Institute indicate that winds of tropical storm force are already affecting portions of eastern Cuba. The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 949 mb (28.02 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting portions of Haiti. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today, the southeastern Bahamas this evening, the central Bahamas on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across the remainder of Haiti today, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas later today, and the central and northwestern Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring in portions the Dominican Republic within the warning area, and these conditions will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Thursday. Tropical storm condition are also possible in the Florida tropical storm watch area by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...2 to 4 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane MATTHEW Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-10-04 18:06:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2016 16:06:52 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2016-10-04 17:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2016 15:35:36 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics
2016-10-04 17:09:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2016 15:03:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2016 15:05:36 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-10-04 17:06:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 041506 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 The eye of Hurricane Matthew was quite distinct when it made landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti at 1100 UTC this morning, but since that time the eye has become obscured on conventional imagery. A reconnaissance plane measured SFMR winds of 118 kt earlier today, but the entire area has not been sampled yet by the plane. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 125 kt in this advisory. Some slight weakening could occur today while Matthew interacts with the high terrain of Cuba and Haiti, but the environment is favorable for the hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some weakening is anticipated by the end of the forecast period due to an increase of the wind shear. Radar fixes from Cuba and satellite data indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees at about 9 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the flow around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the hurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the waters just east of Florida. Beyond 3 days, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward allowing Matthew to turn northward and then northeastward. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew. Most of the models shows a strong hurricane near the east coast of Florida and the southeast United States from days 2 through 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 18.9N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 22.0N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 24.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 25.6N 77.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 29.5N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 34.0N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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