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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 25

2016-10-04 10:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040853 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 The satellite presentation of Matthew remains very impressive this morning. The eye was obscured during part of the night, but has become more distinct and slightly larger during the past couple of hours. Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight level wind of 142 kt, and SFMR winds of 127 kt in the northeast quadrant. During the final passage through the eye a little before 0500 UTC, the aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 934 mb. These data still support an initial intensity of 125 kt. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to be in Matthew before 1200 UTC this morning. Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still moving a little east of due north or 005/8 kt. Matthew is expected to move generally northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge today and tonight. This will bring the center of Matthew near or over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti within the next few hours, and near the eastern tip of Cuba later today. After moving north of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn north-northwestward, then northwestward by 48 hours, as the western portion of the aforementioned ridge builds westward to the north of the hurricane. Between days 3 and 4, Matthew should round the western periphery of the ridge and turn northward, then north-northeastward ahead of a trough approaching the east coast of the United States late in the period. Most of the dynamical models shows a track near the east coast of Florida and the southeast United States from days 3 through 5. The NHC track is largely unchanged through 48 hours, but has been adjusted slightly westward after that time, and is close to the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew. Although some slight weakening due to land interaction is possible today, warm waters and a favorable upper-level wind pattern should allow Matthew to remain a very strong hurricane during the next couple of days. Gradual weakening is predicted later in the forecast period due to an increase in southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs, however Matthew is forecast to remain a hurricane during the entire 5 day period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely later this morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.8N 74.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.2N 74.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 21.0N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 22.8N 75.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 24.6N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 28.0N 79.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 31.7N 79.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 35.5N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion matthew forecast

Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2016-10-04 10:50:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 040850 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 21(28) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 17(29) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 19(31) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 16(32) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 15(33) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 14(37) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 12(36) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 12(38) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 10(40) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 24(34) 8(42) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35) 7(42) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 24(37) 5(42) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 24(48) 4(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 19(33) 4(37) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 24(51) 4(55) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 2(22) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 24(49) 3(52) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 19(44) 2(46) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 19(64) 3(67) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) 2(31) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 17(51) 2(53) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 16(64) 1(65) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) 1(25) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) 13(72) 2(74) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 10(37) 1(38) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 1(19) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 53(58) 14(72) 1(73) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 11(37) X(37) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 55(65) 9(74) 1(75) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 7(41) X(41) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 51(67) 8(75) X(75) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 5(40) X(40) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 43(61) 6(67) X(67) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 4(36) X(36) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 37(54) 6(60) X(60) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 3(28) 1(29) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 4(31) X(31) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 3(21) X(21) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 7(38) X(38) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 8(41) 1(42) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 9(33) 1(34) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 11(38) 1(39) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 13(32) 2(34) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 3(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 2(19) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 49(84) 3(87) X(87) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 46(56) 4(60) X(60) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 3(37) X(37) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 52(75) 15(90) 1(91) X(91) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 22(66) 2(68) X(68) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 21(46) X(46) X(46) ANDROS 34 X 4( 4) 31(35) 39(74) 7(81) 1(82) X(82) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) 11(54) 1(55) X(55) ANDROS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 9(35) X(35) X(35) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 18(20) 64(84) 11(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 2( 2) 49(51) 25(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 30(30) 25(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 17(18) 54(72) 11(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) 24(25) 15(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) MAYAGUANA 34 4 56(60) 13(73) 1(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) MAYAGUANA 50 X 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MAYAGUANA 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 4 14(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) CAMAGUEY 34 2 5( 7) 13(20) 6(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) CAMAGUEY 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 89 8(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 22 46(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 4 33(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LES CAYES 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LES CAYES 64 47 X(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 83 X(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 7 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO PLATA 34 5 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 25

2016-10-04 10:49:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 040848 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC TUE OCT 04 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI * CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN... GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * JAMAICA * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. TROPICAL STORM AND/OR HURRICANE WATCHES ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 74.4W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 74.4W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N 74.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 74.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.8N 75.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.6N 76.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 79.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 110SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 31.7N 79.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 35.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 74.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics

2016-10-04 07:52:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2016 05:52:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2016 03:04:36 GMT

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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 24A

2016-10-04 07:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 040551 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 ...MATTHEW BEARING DOWN ON HAITI... ...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 74.5W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 74.5 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will pass near or over southwestern Haiti this morning, move near eastern Cuba late today, and move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft was 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the southwestern portion of Haiti within the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today, the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, and the central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti tonight, eastern Cuba later this morning, the southeastern Bahamas later today, and the central Bahamas Tuesday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Western Jamaica...1 to 3 inches, isolated 6 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...2 to 4 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

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