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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-09-28 22:43:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 282042 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 19(42) 7(49) X(49) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 3(19) 1(20) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) CURACAO 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 4(20) 2(22) X(22) CURACAO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20(32) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 18(35) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 19(45) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 14(26) 12(38) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 8(19) 6(25) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 7(20) 7(27) 3(30) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 2(14) 2(16) PONCE PR 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 34 38 3(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARTINIQUE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARTINIQUE 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT LUCIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT LUCIA 50 47 X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) SAINT VINCENT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 2
2016-09-28 22:42:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 282042 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BONAIRE. THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CURACAO AND THE GOVERNMENT OF ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ARUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA...BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONAIRE * CURACAO * ARUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 62.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......180NE 100SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 0SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 62.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 61.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.1N 64.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 67.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.4N 69.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.1N 71.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 73.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 15.8N 75.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 62.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Graphics
2016-09-28 19:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2016 17:48:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2016 15:06:38 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-09-28 19:47:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 2:00 PM AST Wed Sep 28 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.6, -61.3 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 1A
2016-09-28 19:47:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281747 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 61.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe and Martinique * St. Lucia * Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 61.3 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move away from the Windward Islands through this evening, and be over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Matthew could become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. Winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) were recently reported on Barbados, and a weather station on Martinique recently observed sustained winds of 47 mph (75 km/h) with gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from recent reconnaissance data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands within the warning area this afternoon and continue into this evening. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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