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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 9
2016-09-30 10:47:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300847 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016 ...MATTHEW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 69.9W ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM NNW OF CURACAO ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Curacao and Aruba * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in Jamaica, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of Matthew. A hurricane watch may be required for Jamaica later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 69.9 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast through Saturday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Saturday night or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Matthew could become a major hurricane later today or tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Curacao and Aruba this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the watch area in Colombia beginning later today. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 9
2016-09-30 10:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 300847 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CURACAO AND ARUBA * COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.9W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 100SE 50SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.9W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 69.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.8N 71.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.7N 72.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 50SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.9N 73.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 50SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.5N 74.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 65SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 76.0W...INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 69.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-09-30 08:01:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300601 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016 This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the scheduled intermediate advisory due to the rapid strengthening of Matthew during the past few hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported flight-level winds of 99 kt in the northern eyewall at 700 mb, along with surface wind estimates of 80-85 kt from the SFMR instrument. In addition, the central pressure has fallen to 979 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt. This also requires significant changes to the intensity forecast, which now calls for Matthew to reach major hurricane status in 24 hours and maintain it through 96 hours. It is unclear how long the rapid strengthening will continue, and the revised forecast could be conservative. There are no changes to the forecast track from the previous regular advisory. It should be noted that despite the rapid intensification, the aircraft data, along with recent scatterometer data, show that the tropical-storm-force winds still extend only a short distance over the southern semicircle. Based on this, no warnings are required for Aruba, Curacao, or Colombia at this time. A warning might be necessary if the southern radii expand or if the center moves to the south of the forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0600Z 14.1N 69.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 70.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 13.9N 72.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 13.8N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 14.1N 74.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 16.4N 75.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.7N 75.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 23.5N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics
2016-09-30 08:00:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2016 06:00:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2016 05:59:33 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-09-30 08:00:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0600 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 300600 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0600 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 AT 0600Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 6 42(48) 9(57) 4(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) PT GALLINAS 50 2 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) PT GALLINAS 64 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CURACAO 34 6 4(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 21(38) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20(34) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 10(31) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 29(46) 9(55) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 5(25) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 20(38) 4(42) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 2(19) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 32(37) 22(59) 3(62) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) 2(31) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 1(17) LES CAYES 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 27(38) 14(52) 3(55) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) 2(22) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 14(23) 10(33) 2(35) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 5 5(10) 3(13) 3(16) 9(25) 5(30) 1(31) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 1(14) PONCE PR 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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