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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2016-09-30 04:55:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 300255 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 4 30(34) 11(45) 4(49) 3(52) 1(53) X(53) PT GALLINAS 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) PT GALLINAS 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CURACAO 34 5 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 21(39) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 11(32) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 30(45) 9(54) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 6(23) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 20(35) 4(39) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 28(33) 23(56) 3(59) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) 2(28) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) LES CAYES 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 25(36) 14(50) 4(54) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 12(21) 10(31) 3(34) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 5 5(10) 3(13) 3(16) 8(24) 5(29) 1(30) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) PONCE PR 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 7

2016-09-30 04:55:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300255 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016 ...HURRICANE MATTHEW STRENGTHENING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 68.8W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF CURACAO ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in Jamaica, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 68.8 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward sped is forecast during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the watch area in Colombia beginning Friday. RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Matthew will continue to diminish across the southern Windward Islands this evening. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 7

2016-09-30 04:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 300254 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA * COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 68.8W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 100SE 50SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 150SE 180SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 68.8W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 68.1W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.0N 70.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 50SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 50SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.8N 73.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 50SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.1N 74.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.4N 75.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.7N 75.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 68.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics

2016-09-30 01:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 23:52:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 21:05:37 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-09-30 01:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE MATTHEW GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 29 the center of MATTHEW was located near 14.2, -68.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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