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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-09-29 04:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 290251 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 19(28) 14(42) 5(47) X(47) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 3(19) 1(20) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) CURACAO 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) 4(22) 2(24) X(24) CURACAO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 20(39) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 13(33) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 24(30) 16(46) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 9(13) 20(33) 10(43) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 11(23) 8(31) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 7(22) 7(29) 4(33) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 3(16) 2(18) PONCE PR 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) AGUADILLA PR 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN JUAN PR 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 34 7 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT MAARTEN 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARBUDA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AVES 34 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARTINIQUE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT LUCIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT VINCENT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 3
2016-09-29 04:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290251 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016 ...LARGE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 63.1W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM ENE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe and Martinique * St. Lucia * Dominica, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was located by a reconnaissance plane near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 63.1 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move away from the Windward Islands tonight, and be over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) primarily to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands within the warning area. These condition should begin to subside during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba beginning late Thursday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-09-29 04:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290250 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 63.1W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......160NE 100SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 120SE 30SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 63.1W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 62.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.3N 65.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.4N 67.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.3N 70.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.1N 71.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.8N 75.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 63.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Graphics
2016-09-29 01:55:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2016 23:55:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2016 21:06:38 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-09-29 01:49:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MATTHEW STILL BATTERING MARTINIQUE AND NEARBY ISLANDS... ...FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Sep 28 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.9, -62.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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