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Summary for Tropical Storm MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-09-29 07:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MATTHEW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Sep 29 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.9, -64.0 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 3A
2016-09-29 07:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290539 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016 ...MATTHEW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 64.0W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ENE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe and Martinique * St. Lucia * Dominica, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 64.0 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move away from the Windward Islands tonight, and be over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) primarily to the north and east of the center. The minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue for a few more hours over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands within the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba beginning late Thursday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Graphics
2016-09-29 05:10:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 02:52:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 03:06:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-09-29 04:52:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290251 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016 Matthew crossed a portion of the Lesser Antilles today, and tropical-storm-force winds were experienced in various islands for several hours. The strongest winds appeared to have occurred in Martinique which was located in the northeastern quadrant of the storm. An Air Force plane currently investigating Matthew measured a peak wind at 850-mb of 73 kt, while the SFMR instrument measured 54 kt. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb. There are no signs of an inner core yet, but the cloud pattern has increased in organization, and the initial intensity was adjusted upward to 55 kt. Matthew is forecast to move over warm waters and relatively low shear during the next few days, and these conditions should lead to gradual strengthening. There is a possibility, however, that Matthew encounters some westerly shear in the central Caribbean well south of Haiti in a day or two. This is an area climatologically unfavorable for storms to intensify, and Matthew could reduce its rate of strengthening there. After that, most of the models show a more conducive upper-level environment, and Matthew could intensify at a faster rate. The NHC forecast is not very different from its predecessor and follows closely the intensity consensus. Fixes from an Air Force plane indicate that Matthew is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt. A strong subtropical ridge over the Atlantic is steering Matthew westward, and some models even move the cyclone south of due west. Most of the guidance is very consistent with this track during the next 48 hours. After that time, guidance becomes more divergent, but in general, all models turn the cyclone toward the northwest and north. Of the historically reliable models, the westernmost track is the ECMWF ensemble mean while the easternmost is the HWRF. The NHC track forecast is in the middle of the TVCX and TVCN multi-model consensus, and does not depart very much from the previous official forecast. There will be very interesting days ahead as Matthew moves toward the central and western Caribbean Sea, and users are reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240 miles, respectively. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 13.9N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 14.3N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 14.4N 67.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 14.3N 70.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 14.1N 71.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 14.5N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 16.8N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 20.0N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-09-29 04:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 28 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.9, -63.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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