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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 4A

2016-09-29 14:05:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 291204 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 800 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016 CORRECTED SPEED OF MOTION ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 65.5W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 65.5 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew is forecast to pass to the north of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) primarily to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba beginning late today. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 4

2016-09-29 11:05:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290905 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016 Matthew is currently experiencing 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center located near the western edge of the main convective mass. An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission reported 850 mb flight-level winds of 65-70 kt and estimated surface winds of 50-55 kt from the SFMR instrument. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. The aircraft reported a central pressure of 1002 mb on its last pass through the center. The initial motion is 275/14. Matthew is currently on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. This feature should steer the storm westward or even south of west during the next 48 hours. After that time, Matthew is expected to approach the western end of the ridge as a mid- to upper-level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico. While this combination is expected to cause the cyclone to turn generally northward, there is significant disagreement between the dynamical models on where the turn will occur and how fast Matthew will move northward. The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean in bringing the center to eastern Cuba by 120 hours, although it is slower than those models. The Canadian model is a little west of the forecast track. The ECMWF and UKMET are to the east of the forecast track and much slower, bringing the center to the island of Hispaniola. Overall, the new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track for the first 72 hours, then is similar to the previous track. Users are reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240 miles, respectively. The current shear is likely to gradually diminish during the next 72 hours, and this should allow continued gradual development. After that time, there is also disagreement in the models regarding the forecast shear, with the GFS showing a more favorable pattern than the ECMWF. If the GFS upper-level winds are correct, Matthew could strengthen more than currently forecast as show by the HWRF. However, given the uncertainty, the new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 14.0N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 14.1N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 14.1N 69.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 13.9N 70.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 13.8N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 14.5N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 17.5N 75.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 20.5N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Graphics

2016-09-29 10:58:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 08:58:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 03:06:35 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-09-29 10:58:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MATTHEW MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 29 the center of MATTHEW was located near 14.0, -64.7 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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