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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-09-29 19:37:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 29 the center of MATTHEW was located near 14.2, -67.0 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 5A
2016-09-29 19:37:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 291736 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016 ...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 67.0W ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM NE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 67.0 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a general westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42059 has recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba beginning late today. RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Matthew will begin to diminish across the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, with additional amounts of an inch or less expected. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Pasch
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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-09-29 16:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 291455 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016 The center of Matthew is exposed to the southwest of the deep convection due to moderate southwesterly shear. Despite the shear, data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show that Matthew is a little stronger this morning. The aircraft has measured peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 80 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 60 kt, which is the basis for the initial intensity. The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft is down to 996 mb. Given the current shear and structure of Matthew, only slight strengthening is predicted during the next 24 hours. The shear is forecast to slowly decrease over the next few days, although there are some differences in the upper-level wind forecasts between the ECMWF and GFS models. The ECMWF keeps a band of southwesterly upper-level winds near Matthew, while the GFS generally shows lower shear. The NHC forecast assumes that there will be a reduction in shear and calls for intensification similar to the previous advisory. The official wind speed forecast is between the lower statistical guidance and the more aggressive HWRF and GFDL models. Matthew is moving at 275/14 kt. The tropical storm is expected to move westward to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic during the next couple of days. In about 48 hours, Matthew should turn northwestward when it approaches the western periphery of the ridge. After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast to turn northward while a mid- to upper-level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is still much faster than the ECMWF at taking Matthew northward. Although the east/west spread among the higher quality track models is somewhat smaller this morning, there is still significant spread among the ECMWF ensembles beyond 3 days, and the overall confidence in the track forecast is still low. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous forecast and is very close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.3N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.1N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 13.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 13.9N 72.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 15.3N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.0N 75.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Graphics
2016-09-29 16:55:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 14:55:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 14:52:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-09-29 16:55:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 291454 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 1 6( 7) 26(33) 11(44) 8(52) 2(54) X(54) PT GALLINAS 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 4(16) X(16) 1(17) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CURACAO 34 1 10(11) 3(14) 3(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 16(46) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 9(34) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 24(38) 10(48) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 5(21) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 15(22) 20(42) 7(49) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 9(17) 12(29) 5(34) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 3(16) 8(24) 7(31) 2(33) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 4(16) 2(18) PONCE PR 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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