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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-07 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 the center of Fourteen was located near 19.2, -86.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-10-07 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 071452 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.9W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.9W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 86.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 86.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.9N 87.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 86.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 4
2018-10-07 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 071452 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-07 13:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 the center of Fourteen was located near 18.9, -86.8 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 3A
2018-10-07 13:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 071150 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 86.8W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 86.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move through the Yucatan Channel Monday morning and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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