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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-09-16 04:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160251 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 30.7W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 30.7W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 30.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.8N 31.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.9N 33.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.0N 34.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.3N 35.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 43.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 30.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-09-16 04:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 160251 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2017-09-15 22:42:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 20:42:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 20:42:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-09-15 22:35:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 152035 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The depression has become less organized since earlier today with the center now exposed to the north and northwest of the deep convection due to northwesterly shear. Dvorak data T-numbers have decreased, but an average of the current intensity numbers of 1.5 and 2.5 support maintaining an initial wind speed of 30 kt. Although the depression is forecast to move over warm water, moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air to the north of the cyclone is likely to prevent significant intensification. However, most of the intensity guidance shows some strengthening and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next day or two. After that time, increasing westerly shear produced by a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to weaken the system, and the tropical cyclone is now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward to be in better agreement with the various intensity consensus aids. The depression has jogged a little northward this afternoon, but the long-term motion is west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The depression is expected to move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a narrow ridge over the eastern Atlantic over the weekend. By early next week, the ridge is forecast to weaken as a deep-layer trough becomes established over the east-central Atlantic. This should cause the cyclone to gain some latitude later in the forecast period. The more northward initial position has required a northward adjustment of the track forecast, but the NHC track remains along the southern side of the guidance envelope, in agreement with the typically reliable HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 12.6N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 12.8N 30.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 12.9N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 13.0N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 13.2N 34.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 14.6N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 16.5N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 18.5N 46.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-09-15 22:35:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 152035 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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