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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Graphics
2018-10-07 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 02:40:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 03:28:29 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-10-07 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070235 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 The cloud pattern has improved in organization and surface pressures are gradually falling, but there is no evidence that the system is a tropical cyclone at this time. All indications are, however, that a tropical depression will likely form at any time soon. Strong wind shear is expected to affect the disturbance, and the SHIPS model only show a modest strengthening. This is in contrast to some global models and the HWRF, which are more aggressive in developing this system. Since the environment is marginally favorable, the NHC forecast only gradually strengthens the system at the rate of the intensity consensus IVCN. However, the forecast is highly uncertain given the solution of the global models. Since the system does not have a well-defined center, the initial motion is also uncertain. The best estimate is toward the north or 360 degrees at 6 kt. Over the next 2 or 3 days, the cyclone will be embedded within the deep southerly flow between a strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a sharp mid-latitude trough advancing eastward over the United States. This flow pattern will force the system to move northward at 5 to 10 kt across the eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days. By day 4, the system should have moved inland and be weakening. It should then race northeastward farther inland across the eastern U.S. The track guidance envelope is remarkably quite tight. This increases the confidence in the track forecast primarily after the cyclone forms. Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen: 1. This system is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. 2. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm by late Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 18.8N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 07/1200Z 19.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 08/0000Z 21.0N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 22.3N 86.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 23.8N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 27.4N 87.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 32.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 38.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-07 04:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY... ...HEAVY RAINS REACHING WESTERN CUBA... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 6 the center of Fourteen was located near 18.8, -86.6 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-10-07 04:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 070235 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 1(17) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) 2(31) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 12(31) 2(33) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 17(32) 2(34) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 17(30) 2(32) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 2(23) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 2(23) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 19(44) 1(45) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10(32) 1(33) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 3 11(14) 3(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) COZUMEL MX 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 9( 9) 19(28) 5(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Public Advisory Number 2
2018-10-07 04:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070235 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 ...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY... ...HEAVY RAINS REACHING WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 86.6W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 86.6 West. The low is moving northward near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the low or the tropical cyclone should move across the Yucatan Channel near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through Sunday night, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a tropical storm on Sunday night. A reconnaissance plane will investigate the system on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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