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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 2

2018-10-07 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070234 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 86.6W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 86.6W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 86.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.3N 86.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 86.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.4N 87.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 32.0N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 38.5N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 86.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Graphics

2018-10-07 01:31:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 23:31:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 21:28:32 GMT

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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen (AT4/AL142018)

2018-10-07 01:31:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... ...HEAVY RAINS HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 6 the center of Fourteen was located near 18.3, -86.6 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Public Advisory Number 1A

2018-10-07 01:31:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062330 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 ...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... ...HEAVY RAINS HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 86.6W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the area of low pressure was centered near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 86.6 West. The system appears to be moving northward near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the low or the tropical cyclone should move near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight or on Sunday and a tropical storm on Sunday night. A reconnaissance plane will investigate the system on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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