je.st
news
Tag: fourteen
Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2017-09-16 10:52:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 08:52:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 08:52:41 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
fourteen
Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-09-16 10:47:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 160847 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 The center of the depression continues to be located on the north side of a curved band of deep convection, and the outflow is only expanding to the south and west. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed and support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has the opportunity to become a tropical storm during the next 24 to 36 hours before a pronounced upper-level trough digs southward over the eastern Atlantic and brings strong northerly shear over the cyclone. The NHC forecast shows some strengthening through Sunday, but weakening should begin thereafter. The system should degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days. The depression is moving westward at 6 kt, steered by a narrow mid-level ridge to the north. The same trough that is bringing the shear will likely further weaken the ridge to the north, and this should result in a turn of the cyclone toward the west-northwest. The NHC track is in the middle of the guidance envelope through 48 hours, but after that time the forecast is uncertain since the guidance spreads out considerably. During that last period, the NHC forecast follows the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the trend of the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 12.6N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 12.6N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 12.6N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 12.7N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 13.3N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 15.2N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 17.0N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-09-16 10:47:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 160847 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-16 10:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 16 the center of Fourteen was located near 12.6, -32.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
fourteen
Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 6
2017-09-16 10:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160847 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 32.1W ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 32.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression has the opportunity to become a tropical storm later today or Sunday before conditions become hostile for strengthening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Sites : [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] next »