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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-09-16 10:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160847 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 32.1W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 32.1W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 31.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.6N 33.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.6N 34.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.7N 35.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.3N 37.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.2N 41.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 17.0N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 32.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2017-09-16 04:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 02:57:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 02:57:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-09-16 04:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 160252 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The overall organization of the tropical depression has changed little since this afternoon. The center remains exposed to the north and northwest of the deep convection, but there has been a slight increase in banding over the southern semicircle within the past hour or two. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak data T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is forecast to remain within an area of moderate to strong northwesterly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours while it moves over warm water. Therefore, only slight strengthening is indicated over the weekend. After that time, increasing westerly shear is forecast to weaken the cyclone, and it is expected to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The depression has turned westward since the previous advisory, and the initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a narrow ridge over the eastern Atlantic through Sunday. The global models indicate that the ridge will weaken early next week as a large deep-layer trough forms over the east-central Atlantic. This is expected to result in a slightly more poleward track later in the period. The updated NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance through 48 hours, but leans toward the left side of the envelope later in the period since the typically reliable ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus models are along the southern edge envelope at 72 h and beyond. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 12.8N 30.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 12.8N 31.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 12.9N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 13.0N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 13.3N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 15.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.2N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-16 04:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 15 the center of Fourteen was located near 12.8, -30.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 5
2017-09-16 04:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160251 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 30.7W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 30.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slightly strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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