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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-09-15 10:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150850 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The cloud pattern of the depression rapidly became better organized several hours ago when advisories were initiated. Since that time, the structure has changed little, and Dvorak T-numbers suggest that the winds are still 30 kt. Currently, the cyclone is embedded within a favorable environment of low shear, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual intensification during the next 3 days. However, the global models (primarily the GFS and the ECMWF) develop a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic which will bring high shear over the cyclone by day 4. This should result in weakening as indicated in the forecast. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt. The depression is being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. The same trough that will cause an increase in the shear will also weaken the subtropical ridge, causing the cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest beyond 3 days. The NHC track is very close to HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model consensus TVCX. These two models have been performing very well so far this season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.6N 27.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 11.0N 28.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 11.1N 30.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 11.2N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 11.3N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 12.2N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 13.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 15.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-15 10:45:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 15 the center of Fourteen was located near 10.6, -27.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 2
2017-09-15 10:45:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150844 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 27.3W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 27.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a Tropical Storm later today or tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-09-15 10:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 150844 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-09-15 10:45:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 150844 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 27.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 27.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 26.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.0N 28.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 11.1N 30.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 11.2N 31.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.3N 32.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.2N 35.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 15.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 27.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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