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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-09-15 04:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150253 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Convection associated with an area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has become much better organized during the past 12 hours, with an increase in banding over the western portion of the circulation. A Dvorak classification of 2.0 from TAFB suggests that the intensity is around 30 kt. The system is currently embedded within an area of light to moderate easterly shear. This should not prevent the system from gradually strengthening while it moves over warm water during the next couple of days. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause an increase in southwesterly shear, which could become quite strong by days 4 and 5. As a result, weakening is expected late in the forest period. The NHC intensity forecast is between the higher statistical guidance and the lower dynamical models. The depression is moving west-northwestward or 285/19 kt. A high pressure ridge currently over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to weaken as the aforementioned trough develops over the central Atlantic by early next week. This should cause a significant reduction in the forward speed of the depression over the weekend. There is some spread in the track guidance later in the period, with the GFS taking a stronger cyclone more northward, while the EC takes a weaker system more westward. The NHC track is between these solutions and is close to the TVCX and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 10.7N 25.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 11.2N 27.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 11.5N 29.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 11.5N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 11.5N 31.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 11.8N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 12.8N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 14.4N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2017-09-15 04:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 02:50:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 02:50:08 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-09-15 04:45:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 150245 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-15 04:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 14 the center of Fourteen was located near 10.7, -25.4 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 1
2017-09-15 04:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150244 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 25.4W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 25.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). A slower westward motion is forecast to begin on Friday and continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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