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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 3

2017-09-15 16:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 151433 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 28.3W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 28.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a west or west-northwest motion is forecast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 3

2017-09-15 16:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 151433 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The depression hasn't changed much in organization since the last advisory, with curved bands primarily in the southern semicircle due to some northerly shear. Dvorak estimates range from 25 to 35 kt, so the initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt. This is an uncertain estimate because ASCAT has not sampled the cyclone or its precursor system in quite some time. While the depression is forecast to be over warm waters for the 5-day period, westerly shear is likely to increase by early next week due to a large trough over the east- central Atlantic. Until day 3, the system should be experiencing light or moderate shear, which would favor gradual strengthening. The model guidance has backed off some since the last advisory, so the wind speed forecast is decreased at long range. However, the new NHC prediction still lies on the high side of the guidance. The depression is slowing down, and is now moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A west or west-northwest track is anticipated for the next several days while the system remains south of an increasingly skinny ridge over the eastern Atlantic. At long range, the system could turn more to the northwest or north as a trough deepens over the east-central Atlantic. A weaker cyclone, however, would tend to feel less influence from the trough, and continue moving west- northwestward. This is the solution suggested by the ECMWF and its ensembles plus the HFIP corrected consensus models, and the latest NHC prediction stays just to the northeast of that guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 11.4N 28.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 11.7N 29.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 11.9N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 11.9N 32.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 12.1N 33.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 13.2N 36.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 14.7N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2017-09-15 16:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 151433 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 3

2017-09-15 16:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 151433 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 28.3W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 28.3W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 27.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.7N 29.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.9N 31.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.9N 32.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.1N 33.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.2N 36.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.7N 41.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 28.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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