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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-08-18 04:43:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 18 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180243 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0300 UTC THU AUG 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 39.0W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 39.0W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 38.5W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.3N 40.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.1N 41.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.8N 43.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 45.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 49.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 39.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm FIONA Graphics
2016-08-17 22:42:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Aug 2016 20:42:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Aug 2016 20:40:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-08-17 22:42:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED AUG 17 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 172042 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 PM AST WED AUG 17 2016 During the past 6 hours, the tropical cyclone has made a transition from a large outer banding pattern to more of a CDO-type feature. Also, a 1635Z SSMI overpass confirmed the tight inner-core structure noted in the two earlier ASCAT passes. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and a 1225Z ASCAT-A overpass indicated winds of near 35 kt at that time. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt and the cyclone is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fiona. The initial motion estimate is 305/14 kt. The latest model guidance has come into much better agreement with the previous track forecast, with the GFS model shifting a little farther south and the ECMWF making a significant shift to the north due to that model not weakening Fiona as much now as compared to previous forecast cycles. These model changes have resulted in a northward shift in the consensus models TVCN and GFEX. Given the much better agreement in the NHC model guidance, the new track forecast was only shifted slightly southward of the previous advisory track after 72 hours in order to move closer to the consensus models. There are no significant changes to the previous intensity forecast. Fiona is a compact tropical cyclone with a radius of maximum winds of 15 nmi or less, which makes the storm susceptible to sharp fluctuations in intensity. The aforementioned SSMI satellite pass also indicated that the small inner-core region of Fiona now appears to be insulated from the very dry mid-level air that had earlier eroded the cyclone's convection. That, along with low shear conditions and marginal SSTs near 27C, should allow for some gradual strengthening for the next 36-48 hours, assuming that the cyclone can mix out any occasional intrusions of dry air. By 72 hours, the vertical shear is forecast to increase to around 20 kt from the southwest, which should act to arrest the intensification process and perhaps even induce some slight weakening. However, by 96 hours and beyond, the shear is forecast to steadily decrease when the cyclone will be moving over SSTs greater than 28C. These conditions could allow for the compact cyclone to maintain a steady intensity despite being embedded in mid-level humidity values of near 50 percent. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN through 48 hours, and then lies just below the Decay-SHIPS model at 72-120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 15.1N 37.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 16.0N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 17.0N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 17.8N 42.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 18.7N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 20.3N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 22.6N 51.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-08-17 22:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 17 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 172041 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 2100 UTC WED AUG 17 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)
2016-08-17 22:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SIXTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 17 the center of FIONA was located near 15.1, -37.8 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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