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Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2016-08-19 04:43:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 19 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 190243 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0300 UTC FRI AUG 19 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-08-19 04:43:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 18 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190243 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 PM AST THU AUG 18 2016 A sizable burst of deep convection has been ongoing since late this afternoon, and recent microwave imagery suggests that the low-level center may be a little closer to the thunderstorm activity than it was for most of the day. Still, Dvorak estimates are unchanged at T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Fiona's window for any strengthening is narrowing. SHIPS guidance is currently analyzing 10-15 kt of south-southwesterly shear, while the UW-CIMSS analysis has the shear as high as 20-25 kt. Despite the discrepancy, these values suggest the shear is already increasing, and it is expected to increase further and become more westerly during the next three days. Therefore, if the current burst of convection continues, Fiona has a chance to strengthen slightly during the next 12 hours and then gradually weaken through days 3 and 4. The forecast trends in the intensity models suggest that Fiona could weaken to a tropical depression, which is now shown in the official forecast. Environmental conditions appear to be a little less hostile by the end of the forecast period, and the NHC forecast allows for the possibility that Fiona could restrengthen after the shear lightens up. The GFDL continues to be an outlier by intensifying Fiona more than the other models, and the official intensity forecast is therefore near or just below the intensity consensus for most of the forecast period. Microwave fixes indicate that Fiona has been moving more slowly toward the northwest, or 305/7 kt. The cyclone is moving toward a break in the subtropical ridge located between 40W-55W, and an amplifying deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic is expected to maintain this break for the next several days. By continuing on a northwestward heading, Fiona is expected to reach the axis of the subtropical ridge and turn northward by day 5. The GFDL is still well to the northeast of the rest of the track guidance since it carries a much stronger system, but the other models are otherwise in very good agreement. Therefore, no significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 17.1N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.8N 43.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 18.7N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.8N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 20.9N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 23.0N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 25.0N 56.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 27.5N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 9
2016-08-19 04:43:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 19 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190242 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0300 UTC FRI AUG 19 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.8W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.8W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 41.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.8N 43.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.7N 44.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.8N 46.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.9N 48.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 53.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 41.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)
2016-08-19 04:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FIONA MOVING MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 18 the center of FIONA was located near 17.1, -41.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 9
2016-08-19 04:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 18 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190242 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 PM AST THU AUG 18 2016 ...FIONA MOVING MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 41.8W ABOUT 1180 MI...1900 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 41.8 West. Fiona is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible overnight or early Friday, followed by weakening late Friday and into the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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