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Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)

2016-08-19 16:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FIONA CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 19 the center of FIONA was located near 17.8, -43.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 11

2016-08-19 16:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191435 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 ...FIONA CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 43.5W ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 43.5 West. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fiona is expected to weaken to a depression over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 11

2016-08-19 16:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 19 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 191434 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC FRI AUG 19 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 43.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 43.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 43.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.4N 44.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 46.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 49.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 51.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 43.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 10

2016-08-19 10:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190846 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 Fiona hasn't really changed much overall in the past several hours with an earlier burst of convection having dissipated and a new burst taking its place. Microwave data suggest the center is near or south of the main area of thunderstorms, which is a sign of the ongoing southwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt for this advisory since the Dvorak estimates are the same as the previous cycle. Little significant change is expected with Fiona's intensity today due to gradually increasing shear. The storm should weaken over the weekend as the shear further increases, along with the likely entrainment of drier mid-level air. While the environmental conditions might get less hostile at the end of the period, it is uncertain how much will be left of Fiona at that time to take advantage of that change, with some suggestion in the global models that Fiona could decay to a remnant low by then. Thus, the new NHC intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one, near a model consensus than excludes the GFDL (which has looked consistently too high). A timely AMSR2 pass helped show that Fiona has sped up, and is now moving 300/9. Fiona should move around the Atlantic subtropical ridge for the next few days. The biggest change to the track guidance is that all of the models have shifted a few degrees westward at long range. This appears to be due to less of a trough forecast over the central Atlantic and a weaker representation of Fiona in the global models, both of which would cause the storm to continue moving northwestward for a longer period of time. The new NHC track forecast follows the trend of the models, but remains a fair distance east of the model consensus at days 4 and 5 due to continuity constraints. It would not be surprising if further westward adjustments had to be made later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.6N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.2N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.1N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.2N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 21.3N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 23.5N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 26.0N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 28.0N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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