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Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 13

2016-08-20 04:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 200245 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 ...FIONA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 45.5W ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 45.5 West. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fiona is expected to become a tropical depression over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2016-08-20 04:46:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 200245 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 13

2016-08-20 04:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 200245 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 45.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 45.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N 47.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 52.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 54.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.6N 59.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.5N 62.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 63.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 45.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm FIONA Graphics

2016-08-19 22:36:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Aug 2016 20:35:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Aug 2016 20:35:36 GMT

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 12

2016-08-19 22:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 192035 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 Fiona continues to produce bursts of convection north of the center, although the center is now mostly exposed to the south of the latest burst. An earlier RapidScat overpass suggested that tropical-storm-force winds were at best only occurring in the northwest quadrant, and based on these data and the loss of organization since this morning the initial intensity is decreased to 35 kt. The initial motion is 295/9. A low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone is steering Fiona west-northwestward, and this motion should continue with some increase in forward speed during the next 48-72 hours. After that time, a developing weakness in the ridge caused by a frontal system moving eastward from the United States should cause Fiona to turn northwestward and north-northwestward. The guidance has again shifted westward between 72-120 hours. Thus, as in the previous advisory that portion of the track is also nudged westward, but it remains to the east of the various consensus models. A combination of a dry air mass, increasing vertical wind shear, and convergent upper-level flow should cause Fiona to continue to weaken. The intensity guidance has mostly trended toward lower intensities since the last advisory, with the ECMWF model now forecasting Fiona to weaken to a trough before 120 hours. Based on this, the intensity forecast now calls for Fiona to become a remnant low after 72 hours. That being said, the environmental conditions might get less hostile by 120 hours, and the UKMET/ Canadian models suggest the possibility of re-intensification at that time. In deference to those models, the official forecast does not call for dissipation during this forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 18.1N 44.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 18.9N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.9N 48.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 21.1N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 22.1N 53.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 24.5N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 26.5N 60.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

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