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Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)

2016-08-19 22:35:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FIONA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 19 the center of FIONA was located near 18.1, -44.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 12

2016-08-19 22:35:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 192034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 ...FIONA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 44.4W ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 44.4 West. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fiona is expected to weaken to a depression over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm FIONA Graphics

2016-08-19 17:10:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Aug 2016 14:36:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Aug 2016 15:06:39 GMT

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 11

2016-08-19 16:35:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191435 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 Fiona continues to produce bursts of convection, mainly near and north of the center. The current burst has weakened during the past few hours, leaving the low-level center partly exposed south of the convective area. Various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35-50 kt, and based on these, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The initial motion is 295/9. A low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone is steering Fiona west-northwestward, and this motion should continue with some increase in forward speed during the next 48-72 hours. After that time, a developing weakness in the ridge is expected to cause Fiona to turn northwestward. The guidance has shifted a little westward between 72-120 hours. Thus, that portion of the track is also nudged westward, but it lies to the east of the various consensus models. A combination of a dry air mass, increasing vertical wind shear, and convergent upper-level flow should cause Fiona to weaken for the next 3-4 days. The intensity forecast follows the guidance consensus in calling for the cyclone to weaken to a depression by 48 hours, and then remain at about a 30 kt intensity through the rest of the forecast period. An alternative scenario is that the system weakens more than currently forecast and decays to a remnant low sometime before day 4. As noted in the previous discussion, the environmental conditions might get less hostile by day 5. However, it is uncertain how much of the cyclone might be left to take advantage of these more favorable conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 17.8N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 18.4N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 19.3N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.4N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.6N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 24.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.0N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 28.0N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2016-08-19 16:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 19 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 191435 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC FRI AUG 19 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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