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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 6

2016-08-18 10:40:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180840 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016 Deep convection associated with Fiona has increased with the approach of the diurnal convective maximum, and the cyclone's cloud pattern is better organized than it was yesterday. Satellite data suggest that the low-level center is now located underneath an irregularly shaped central dense overcast, while a few broken banding features have recently developed over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, while ADT values are around T3.0. A blend of these data is used to increase the initial wind speed to 40 kt. Global models indicate that large-scale conditions should be adequately conducive to support some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, after that time, a substantially drier atmosphere and increasing southwesterly shear associated with the mid-oceanic trough are expected to induce weakening, even though sea surface temperatures will be higher. Although not shown explicitly in the forecast, atmospheric conditions could become so hostile that Fiona would degenerate into a remnant low later in the forecast period as depicted in the ECMWF model. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and the bulk of the guidance in the short term but is a little lower after 48 hours. Fiona has been moving west-northwestward to northwestward into a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge between 40w and 50w, and the initial motion estimate is 300/14. Fiona should maintain a similar heading but at a reduced forward speed once it becomes a shallower cyclone in a few days and is steered around the Atlantic low-level subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the north of the previous one, mostly after 48 hours and largely in response to a significant shift in the latest ECMWF solution. The forecast track lies on the far eastern side of the guidance envelope, well to the left of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.2N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 17.0N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 17.9N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 18.7N 44.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 19.8N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 22.1N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 23.8N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 56.1W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)

2016-08-18 10:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FIONA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 18 the center of FIONA was located near 16.2, -40.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 6

2016-08-18 10:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180836 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016 ...FIONA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 40.3W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 40.3 West. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, followed by slow weakening by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2016-08-18 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 18 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 180836 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0900 UTC THU AUG 18 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 6

2016-08-18 10:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 18 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0900 UTC THU AUG 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 40.3W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 40.3W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 41.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.9N 43.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.7N 44.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.8N 46.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.1N 50.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.8N 53.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 56.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 40.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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