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Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2016-08-18 16:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 18 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 181431 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC THU AUG 18 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)

2016-08-18 16:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FIONA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 18 the center of FIONA was located near 16.4, -40.5 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 7

2016-08-18 16:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 181431 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016 ...FIONA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 40.5W ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 40.5 West. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 6

2016-08-18 14:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 181241 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016 Corrected track guidance discussion in third paragraph Deep convection associated with Fiona has increased with the approach of the diurnal convective maximum, and the cyclone's cloud pattern is better organized than it was yesterday. Satellite data suggest that the low-level center is now located underneath an irregularly shaped central dense overcast, while a few broken banding features have recently developed over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, while ADT values are around T3.0. A blend of these data is used to increase the initial wind speed to 40 kt. Global models indicate that large-scale conditions should be adequately conducive to support some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, after that time, a substantially drier atmosphere and increasing southwesterly shear associated with the mid-oceanic trough are expected to induce weakening, even though sea surface temperatures will be higher. Although not shown explicitly in the forecast, atmospheric conditions could become so hostile that Fiona would degenerate into a remnant low later in the forecast period as depicted in the ECMWF model. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and the bulk of the guidance in the short term but is a little lower after 48 hours. Fiona has been moving west-northwestward to northwestward into a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge between 40w and 50w, and the initial motion estimate is 300/14. Fiona should maintain a similar heading but at a reduced forward speed once it becomes a shallower cyclone in a few days and is steered around the Atlantic low-level subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the north of the previous one, mostly after 48 hours and largely in response to a significant shift in the latest ECMWF solution. The forecast track lies on the western side of the guidance envelope, well to the left of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.2N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 17.0N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 17.9N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 18.7N 44.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 19.8N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 22.1N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 23.8N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 56.1W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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