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Tropical Storm FIONA Graphics
2016-08-18 23:11:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Aug 2016 20:38:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Aug 2016 21:07:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-08-18 22:37:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU AUG 18 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 182037 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 PM AST THU AUG 18 2016 After a brief convective hiatus, deep convection with cloud tops of -70C to -75C has redeveloped into a small CDO feature directly over the previously exposed low-level circulation center. Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and UW-CIMSS ADT values have decreased to T3.0/45 kt. A blend of these values support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Fiona is moving a little faster toward the northwest, or 300/09 kt. Other than minor fluctuations in the forward speed of the cyclone due to intermittent periods of convective re-organization like the most recent episode, the latest model guidance continues to be in strong agreement on Fiona moving west-northwestward to northwestward toward a break in the Bermuda-Azores High for the next 120 hours. Given the tightly packed model guidance about the previous few forecast tracks, the new NHC track forecast is just an extension of the previous advisory, and lies close to but a little slower than the consensus model, TVCN. There is no significant change to the previous intensity forecast or rationale. Despite the earlier sharp decrease in deep convection, the inner-core wind field of the compact cyclone has remained quite robust based on the lack of no arc cloud lines or outflow boundaries seen emanating outward from the center in visible satellite today. As result, Fiona should be able to generate additional convection in the short term and strengthen some during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, the global and regional models remain in good agreement on the cyclone moving through a band of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt from 36-72 hours, which is expected to induce weakening. However, the amount of weakening remains uncertain due to continued mixed dynamic and thermodynamic conditions. Although Fiona will be propagating through significant shear and into a drier airmass, the small cyclone will also be moving over warmer SSTs of 28C-29C and into a region of much cooler upper-tropospheric temperatures, which will produce greater instability and generate fairly strong convection that could help offset the unfavorable shear conditions. Given these mixed signals, the official intensity forecast remains an average of the various intensity models, which at 72 hours still ranges from hurricane strength in the GFDL model to a 25-kt remnant low in the ECMWF and Navy-CTCI models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.0N 41.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 17.7N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 18.5N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 19.6N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 20.8N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 23.0N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 25.0N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 27.2N 56.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)
2016-08-18 22:36:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FIONA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 18 the center of FIONA was located near 17.0, -41.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm FIONA Graphics
2016-08-18 17:10:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Aug 2016 14:37:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Aug 2016 15:06:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2016-08-18 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 18 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 181431 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC THU AUG 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 40.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 40.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 40.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.2N 41.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.1N 43.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.1N 45.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.3N 47.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.6N 50.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.4N 53.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.4N 56.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 40.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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