je.st
news
Tag: hilary
Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 38
2017-07-30 22:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302040 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Convection continues to gradually decline with cloud tops of -20C to -25C now located near the low-level center and in the northern semicircle. Although the convective pattern has taken on more of a stratiform appearance, an 1840Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated that Hilary is still a tropical storm based on several 35- to 37-kt wind vectors located in the northeastern quadrant. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Continued steady weakening is expected as Hilary moves over SSTs near 21C and ingests stable stratocumulus clouds throughout the forecast period, with the cyclone likely degenerating into a remnant low pressure system tonight or early Monday. The initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on Hilary moving west-northwestward for the next 24 hours or so, followed by the shallow cyclone turning a little more westward under the influence of brisk easterly tradewinds until dissipation occurs by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 25.9N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/1800Z 26.7N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0600Z 27.2N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 27.5N 134.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-30 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 the center of Hilary was located near 25.0, -127.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
hilary
Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 38
2017-07-30 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 302039 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 ...HILARY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 127.2W ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 127.2 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilary is expected to become a remnant low tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km), mainly to the northwest through northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2017-07-30 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 302039 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 38
2017-07-30 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 302038 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 127.2W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 127.2W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 126.6W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.9N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.7N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.2N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.5N 134.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 127.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] next »