je.st
news
Tag: hilary
Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2017-07-29 16:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 291434 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 33
2017-07-29 16:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 291433 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 121.5W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 121.5W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 121.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.4N 123.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.6N 125.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.6N 128.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.2N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.4N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 25.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 121.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Hilary Graphics
2017-07-29 10:53:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 08:53:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 08:53:01 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
hilary
Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-07-29 10:45:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290845 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 The deep convection associated with Hilary has lost some organization since the last advisory, with little or no convection currently occurring over the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates range from 45-65 kt, and recent ASCAT data showed winds of at best 50 kt. Based on these, the initial intensity is nudged down to a possibly generous 55 kt. The system will be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable environment, which should cause a steady weakening. By 48 hours, Hilary is forecast to become a remnant low over 23C waters, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate completely after 96 hr. The initial motion is now 305/9. As mentioned in the previous advisory, a mid-level ridge extending from southern California west-southwestward across the eastern Pacific should steer Hilary on this general path for the next couple of days. The forecast then gets more complicated due to potential interaction with TS Irwin. The guidance is in less good agreement than earlier, with the possibilities ranging from the Canadian model merging the two systems in 72 h to the ECMWF showing them dissipating in close proximity to one another near 120 h. The track guidance suggests a west-northwestward to westward turn for Hilary as Irwin or its remnants move around the eastern and northern sides, and the official forecast follows this scenario. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track for the first 36-48 h and then is nudged to the south thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.7N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 21.7N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 22.9N 124.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.1N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 24.9N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z 25.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z 25.5N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-29 10:45:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 the center of Hilary was located near 20.7, -120.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
hilary
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] next »