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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 34
2017-07-29 22:36:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 292035 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 122.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 122.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 124.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.4N 126.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.2N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.5N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.5N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 122.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Hilary Graphics
2017-07-29 16:39:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 14:39:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 14:39:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 33
2017-07-29 16:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291434 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Although Hilary has crossed the 25 deg SST isotherm, the inner-core of the tropical storm has remained mostly intact. Recent SSMI and AMSR microwave imagery indicate that deep convection is still present near the center of circulation, and in a band extending to the east and south. IR imagery from GOES-W even briefly showed a warm spot embedded within the shallow to medium convection that surrounds the center. Given that the cloud pattern hasn't changed significantly and an earlier ASCAT-A pass at 0540 UTC showed maximum winds of 49 kt, the initial intensity has been held at 55 kt. Despite Hilary's resilience so far, the SSTs beneath the cyclone will continue to decrease for the next several days, so weakening is inevitable. The intensity forecast has not been changed from the previous advisory, and shows Hilary becoming a remnant low within 48 hours. After days of high uncertainty, the track guidance is finally coming into better agreement. For the next 12 to 24 hours, Hilary should be steered generally toward the west-northwest or northwest by a mid-level ridge located to the north. After that time, a turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected due to a combination of interaction with Irwin and amplification of the ridge. Beyond day 3, the UKMET and ECMWF show the two cyclones dissipating in close proximity to one another, while the GFS still shows the systems merging. The NHC forecast favors the ECMWF and UKMET solutions for now, but both systems are expected to be very weak regardless of how close they actually get. The new track is just a little faster than the previous forecast and is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 22.4N 123.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 23.6N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 24.6N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 25.2N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z 25.4N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z 25.5N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-29 16:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY STILL INTACT FOR NOW BUT WEAKENING EXPECTED SOON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 the center of Hilary was located near 21.4, -121.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 33
2017-07-29 16:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 291434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 ...HILARY STILL INTACT FOR NOW BUT WEAKENING EXPECTED SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 121.5W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 121.5 West. Hilary is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general heading with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Hilary is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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