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Tropical Storm Hilary Graphics
2017-07-30 16:39:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Jul 2017 14:39:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Jul 2017 15:24:09 GMT
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hilary
Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 37
2017-07-30 16:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 301433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Convection has continued to rapidly wane with only a small band of modest thunderstorm activity with tops to -30C restricted to the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on a blend of available intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. This rapid weakening trend is forecast to continue since Hilary is now moving over sub-22 C SSTs and into an extensive field of stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause Hilary to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system tonight, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. As Hilary continues to lose its deep vertical circulation, the shallow cyclone should maintain a general west-northwestward motion along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge until dissipation occurs in 72 h. The NHC track forecast remains along the southern portion of the tightly clustered guidance and is close to the previous advisory track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 23.9N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 24.9N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 25.8N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1200Z 26.7N 133.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-30 16:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY WEAKENS FURTHER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 the center of Hilary was located near 23.9, -125.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilary Graphics
2017-07-30 10:54:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Jul 2017 08:54:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Jul 2017 08:54:16 GMT
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hilary
Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 36
2017-07-30 10:51:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300850 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Deep convection associated with Hilary has continued to decrease in coverage overnight, with only a small area of cold cloud tops remaining to the southeast of the center. An average of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMMS yields an initial intensity estimate of 40 kt. Hilary will be moving into a more stable airmass over SSTs below 22C very soon, which should result in steady weakening over the next 24 to 48 hours. Deep convection is also expected to dissipate later today, and Hilary is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low within 24 hours. Recent satellite fixes show that Hilary has turned west- northwestward or 300/12 kt. A west-northwestward motion between a low- to mid-level ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Irwin to the south should continue over the next couple of days. The latest global models suggest that cyclone is likely to dissipate before any merger with Irwin or its remnants takes place. The NHC track forecast is along the southern portion of the tightly clustered guidance and is very similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 23.5N 124.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 24.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 25.4N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1800Z 26.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0600Z 26.3N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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