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Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 32
2017-07-29 10:45:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 290844 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 ...HILARY BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 120.8W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 120.8 West. Hilary is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves over colder water, and Hilary is expected to weaken to a depression on Sunday and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2017-07-29 10:45:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 290844 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 32
2017-07-29 10:44:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290844 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 120.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 120.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.7N 122.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.9N 124.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.1N 126.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.9N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 25.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 120.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm HILARY Graphics
2017-07-29 04:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 02:38:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 02:38:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm HILARY Forecast Discussion Number 31
2017-07-29 04:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290234 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 During the past few hours, a faint eye has emerged with Hilary on visible imagery, with even hints of a warm spot in the infrared channel. Overall, the satellite presentation has improved, and the subjective satellite intensity estimates have risen to between 55 and 65 kt. A blend of these values gives 60 kt for the initial intensity. This increase in winds should be short-lived since Hilary will be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable environment. By 48 hours, Hilary is forecast to become a remnant low over 22.5C waters. The latest NHC wind speed prediction is a blend of the previous interpolated forecast and the intensity consensus. Hilary continues moving northwestward, a little faster now at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from southern California west-southwestward across the eastern Pacific should steer Hilary on this general path for the next couple of days. The forecast then gets more complicated due to any interaction with TS Irwin. Surprisingly, the model guidance has fallen into good agreement since the last cycle, displaying a slowdown for Hilary and a small turn to the west-northwest due to Irwin. The latest models are fairly close to the previous NHC forecast, so no significant changes are made. The other model trend of note is that none of the main global models shows Hilary absorbing Irwin, likely due to how weak Hilary will be in a few days. Instead Hilary just dissipates over the cold waters, and even a couple models have Irwin now absorbing Hilary since it will have a much shorter time over the poor environment. The NHC forecast will now show dissipation of the remnant low of Hilary by day 5, in accordance with all of the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 20.3N 120.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.1N 121.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.3N 123.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.6N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 24.7N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 25.8N 131.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 26.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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