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Tropical Storm Hilary Graphics
2017-07-29 22:40:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 20:40:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 20:40:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 34
2017-07-29 22:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292037 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 The inner-core of Hilary continues to feature deep convection, despite analyzed SSTs below 24 deg C. At times during the day today, an eye or eye-like feature has even been observed in IR and visible imagery. That said, an ASCAT-B pass at 1722 UTC revealed maximum winds of only 46 kt in the NW quadrant. Based on the ASCAT data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt, suggesting that Hilary has finally begun to weaken. The intensity forecast is unchanged and steady weakening is expected until the cyclone becomes a remnant low, now shown to occur in about 36 hours. All of the global models forecast that Hilary will dissipate within 4 days, in close proximity to Irwin. The initial motion is 310/11 kt, and Hilary has been slipping a little to the right of the forecast track today, perhaps in part due to the fact that it has maintained a fairly coherent deep circulation. A turn back toward the west-northwest is still expected within the next 12-24 hours as the tropical storm weakens and interacts with the circulation of Irwin. The various global models still differ in the details of that interaction, but generally agree that both systems will be weak and one or the other will probably dissipate before a merger can occur. Overall, the NHC track has been shifted slightly to the right to account for the initial motion, but is otherwise unchanged from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 22.3N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 23.3N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 24.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 25.2N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z 25.5N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z 25.5N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2017-07-29 22:36:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 292036 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 3 14(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-29 22:36:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY WEAKENS SOME MORE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 the center of Hilary was located near 22.3, -122.5 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 34
2017-07-29 22:36:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 292036 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 ...HILARY WEAKENS SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 122.5W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 122.5 West. Hilary is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Hilary is expected to become a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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