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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 35
2017-07-30 04:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300233 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Satellite data indicate that Hilary is gradually losing organization. GOES-16 1-minute visible data show the center on the northwestern side of a warming central dense overcast. A late-arriving ASCAT-A pass from 1808Z suggested maximum winds of up to 55 kt. With the degradation in the satellite presentation since that time, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. While Hilary has been holding its own recently, the cold waters and dry stable air mass of the eastern Pacific always end up winning, and a steady weakening of Hilary should begin soon. The intensity forecast is close to a blend of the previous interpolated forecast and the HFIP-corrected intensity consensus. Transition to a remnant low is expected in about 24 hours due to Hilary moving over progressively colder waters. Hilary is moving a little faster and to the left, now 305/12. The storm should turn west-northwestward as it weakens and begins to interact with the circulation of Irwin. There is a reasonable consensus in the models that one or both of the tropical cyclones will dissipate before any merger can occur, and none of the major models keep Hilary intact through 72 hours. Thus the only change is to show Hilary dissipated at that time, with only cosmetic modifications made to the rest of the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 22.9N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 23.9N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 25.0N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1200Z 25.8N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0000Z 26.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2017-07-30 04:32:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 12 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-30 04:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY LIKELY TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 the center of Hilary was located near 22.9, -123.7 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 35
2017-07-30 04:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 ...HILARY LIKELY TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 123.7W ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 123.7 West. Hilary is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilary is expected to become a remnant low late on Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 35
2017-07-30 04:30:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 123.7W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 123.7W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.1W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.9N 125.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.0N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.8N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 123.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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