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Hurricane CRISTINA Graphics

2014-06-12 14:29:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2014 12:20:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jun 2014 12:27:45 GMT

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 12

2014-06-12 14:27:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1230 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 121226 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1230 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 CORRECTED 12-FT SEAS THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.9W AT 12/1230Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.9W AT 12/1230Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 12

2014-06-12 14:19:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 530 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 121219 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 530 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Cristina has continued to rapidly intensify overnight. Its well-defined eye is now completely surrounded by cloud tops as cold as -80C, and the current intensity is estimated to be around 125 kt based mainly on objective ADT guidance. This makes Cristina the second category 4 hurricane of the eastern North Pacific season. This special advisory is being issued to update the initial intensity and the intensity forecast during the first 24 hours. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged from the 0900 UTC advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1230Z 16.4N 106.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 12

2014-06-12 14:19:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 530 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 121218 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 530 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...CRISTINA REACHES CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 106.9W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CRISTINA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CRISTINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TODAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2014-06-12 14:19:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1230 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 121218 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1230 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 AT 1230Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 58(63) 23(86) 3(89) X(89) X(89) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 23(24) 26(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 14(21) 4(25) 1(26) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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