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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 15
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100842 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...CRISTINA ALMOST A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 113.0W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 113.0 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion with a gradual bend to the west is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina could become a hurricane later today, however, a weakening trend should begin by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100842 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.0W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.0W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.4N 117.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.9N 120.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.3N 122.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.6N 125.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 127.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-10 04:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:35:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:35:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-07-10 04:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 100234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 10 23(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA CLARION 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 4 84(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 20N 115W 50 X 51(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 19(19) 15(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-10 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 the center of Cristina was located near 18.4, -111.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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