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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 23
2014-08-29 10:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290835 TCMAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 51.7W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 43 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 120SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT.......190NE 230SE 220SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 260SE 660SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 51.7W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 53.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 45.4N 45.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 140SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 49.3N 39.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 140SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 52.9N 32.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 160SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 250SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 59.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 200SW 160NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 280SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.1N 51.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-29 05:09:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 02:55:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 03:04:46 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-08-29 04:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290253 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014 Remarkably, Cristobal still has a well-organized appearance on satellite imagery with a central dense overcast and some banding features. The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane will soon encounter much cooler waters, which would cause significant weakening as a tropical cyclone. However, it is expected that the cyclone will be able to maintain at least some of its strength due to baroclinic forcing. Post-tropical Cristobal will likely remain a powerful, albeit extratropical, cyclone over the north Atlantic through Saturday. Beyond that time, the system is forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland and lose its identity. The hurricane has continued to accelerate, and the motion is now near 065/40 kt as Cristobal moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. Dynamical track guidance indicates a slight turn toward the northeast as the tropical or post-tropical cyclone interacts with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or two. The official track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. The wind radii were adjusted based on data from a recent ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 40.2N 56.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 43.1N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 47.5N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 51.5N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z 56.5N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-29 04:53:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT RACES TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 28 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 40.2, -56.6 with movement ENE at 46 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 22
2014-08-29 04:53:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014 ...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT RACES TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 56.6W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 46 MPH...74 KM/H...AND A RAPID NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND TOMORROW MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...405 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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