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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 22

2014-08-29 04:53:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290253 TCMAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 40 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 220SE 220SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 280SE 360SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 43.1N 49.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 140SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 220SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 47.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 140SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 220SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 250SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 56.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 200SW 160NW. 34 KT...220NE 270SE 250SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 56.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2014-08-29 04:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 290253 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics

2014-08-28 22:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 20:35:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 20:34:49 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)

2014-08-28 22:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE IT RACES TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 28 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 38.5, -61.5 with movement ENE at 36 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 21

2014-08-28 22:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 282032 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014 ...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE IT RACES TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 61.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...57 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT... AND CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...405 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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