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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)

2014-08-27 16:40:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CRISTOBAL FORECAST TO PASS WELL NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 31.8, -72.2 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 16

2014-08-27 16:40:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271440 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 ...CRISTOBAL FORECAST TO PASS WELL NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 72.2W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM W OF BERMUDA ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY LATE FRIDAY. CRISTOBAL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2014-08-27 16:38:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 271438 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) X(62) X(62) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 16

2014-08-27 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 271438 TCMAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 72.2W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 190SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 72.2W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.1W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 70.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.5N 66.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 39.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 130SE 90SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 43.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 140SE 90SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 270SE 210SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 50.0N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 140NW. 34 KT...180NE 270SE 240SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 56.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 72.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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