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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics

2014-08-28 13:51:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:51:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 09:04:45 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)

2014-08-28 13:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL AFFECTING THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Aug 28 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 36.3, -67.0 with movement NE at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 19A

2014-08-28 13:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281150 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 800 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 ...SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL AFFECTING THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 67.0W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM NNW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC WELL NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics

2014-08-28 11:09:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 08:34:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 09:04:45 GMT

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 19

2014-08-28 10:32:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280832 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014 Cristobal's satellite presentation is more typical of a tropical cyclone tonight than yesterday at this time. There is a symmetric area of very deep convection concentrated near the center, and Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 65 kt. There is a small opportunity for intensification as indicated by some models, but it is becoming more likely that it will be enhanced by baroclinic processes as the cyclone interacts with a frontal zone. Cristobal will move over 17-degree Celsius waters and lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours. It should then become an intense extratropical cyclone with winds of hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days. The hurricane is already embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 25 knots and accelerating. There is no reason to change the track forecast from the previous one, and the official forecast track continues to be in good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA and the GFS ensemble mean. The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 35.6N 67.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 37.8N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 41.5N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 46.0N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/0600Z 50.0N 40.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0600Z 59.5N 28.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0600Z 63.0N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Avila

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