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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 18
2014-08-28 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 280232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014 ...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA TOMORROW MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 69.9W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WNW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT. CRISTOBAL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2014-08-28 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 280232 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 48(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 18
2014-08-28 04:31:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 280231 TCMAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC THU AUG 28 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 69.9W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 190SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 69.9W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 70.7W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.1N 66.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 39.3N 59.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 130SE 80SW 30NW. 34 KT...210NE 250SE 130SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 43.4N 51.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 130SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 260SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 47.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...220NE 270SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 56.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 160SE 160SW 140NW. 34 KT...220NE 280SE 200SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 62.5N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 69.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-28 01:57:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 23:57:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 21:04:44 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-28 01:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL PASSING BETWEEN BERMUDA AND CAPE HATTERAS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 33.3, -70.7 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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