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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-27 21:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 17:36:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 19:32:46 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-27 19:35:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL FORECAST TO PASS WELL NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 32.0, -72.0 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 16A
2014-08-27 19:35:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271735 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 ...CRISTOBAL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WELL WEST OF BERMUDA.. SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 72.0W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF BERMUDA ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY LATE FRIDAY. CRISTOBAL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 41048...LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...EAST OF THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH... 76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-27 17:09:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 14:42:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 15:04:44 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-08-27 16:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 271441 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 Some deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Cristobal during the past few hours, mainly in the western semicircle. Satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping south and east of the center interspersed with a couple of convective bands. The initial intensity remains 70 kt, and another aircraft will be investigating the cyclone this afternoon. There is still some potential for Cristobal to strengthen as a tropical cyclone during the next day or so before it begins extratropical transition, which should be complete shortly after 48 hours. Cristobal is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone by Friday night or Saturday, and then slowly weaken before being absorbed by another cyclone at the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the IVCN intensity consensus while Cristobal remains a tropical cyclone. Cristobal has wobbled a little to the left this morning, with an initial motion estimate of 355/10. All of the guidance is unanimous in turning Cristobal north-northeastward and then northeastward during the next 24 hours and accelerating the cyclone into the mid-latitude westerlies. A continued northeasterly motion is expected through the remainder of the cyclone's life cycle. The track model guidance is tightly clustered, but the NHC forecast has shifted to the left of the previous one by about a half a degree due to the initial position and motion being to the left of the previous track. The new NHC track is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models through 72 hours, and a little south of that consensus at 96 hours. The extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 31.8N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 34.0N 70.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 36.5N 66.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 39.6N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 43.5N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 50.0N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1200Z 56.0N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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