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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-27 13:51:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD WELL WEST OF BERMUDA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 31.5, -72.0 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 15A
2014-08-27 13:51:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271151 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD WELL WEST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 72.0W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CRISTOBAL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-27 11:09:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 08:34:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 09:04:47 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2014-08-27 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 270833 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) X(45) X(45) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 14(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-08-27 10:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270833 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 The cloud pattern has changed from 12 hours ago when there was deep and symmetric convection near the center. Currently, the satellite presentation resembles a subtropical cyclone with weak convection which is not concentrated near the center. However, an Air Force plane recently penetrated Cristobal and found a minimum pressure of 983 mb and a partial eyewall. The strong winds of 75 to 80 kt measured by the plane at flight level were not observed at the surface during this time. Given such uncertainty, the initial intensity has been kept at 70 kt at this time. The hurricane has a small window of opportunity for strengthening before it moves to higher latitudes and over cooler waters in a couple of days. The NHC wind speed forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus and similar to the previous official one. After that time, Cristobal is forecast to become a strong post-tropical storm with hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic later this week. Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Cristobal slowed down earlier this morning, but as anticipated, it has resumed a northward motion or 010 degrees at 10 knots. The steering pattern has not changed and Cristobal should begin to move toward the northeast in about 24 hours with an increase in forward speed as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus and similar to the GFS ensemble mean AEMI, which has been performing quite well with this storm so far. The forecast beyond 72 hours follows the input from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 30.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 32.4N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 34.7N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 37.5N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 40.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 48.0N 43.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0600Z 53.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Avila
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