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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 12

2014-08-26 16:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 261439 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 71.7W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 41047...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...83 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION TO ONGOING RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 12

2014-08-26 16:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 261435 TCMAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 71.7W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 180SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 71.7W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.4N 71.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.9N 70.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.9N 69.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 180SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.4N 65.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 43.0N 51.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 210SE 150SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 50.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 58.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 71.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2014-08-26 16:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 261435 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 16(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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