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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-26 19:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 28.0, -71.5 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 12A
2014-08-26 19:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 261739 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 71.5W ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION TO ONGOING RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-26 17:11:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 14:37:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 15:05:48 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-08-26 16:42:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 261442 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 The center of Cristobal is partially exposed to the northwest of the deep convection. Analyses from UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model show about 20 kt of west-northwesterly shear over Cristobal and dry air has wrapped into the southwestern quadrant of the circulation as the cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level trough to its west. The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on data from the last NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission. Model guidance indicates that the upper-level winds will become less hostile during the next day or so as Cristobal moves underneath and then north of the aforementioned trough, which should allow for some intensification. The NHC forecast shows Cristobal peaking in 36-48 hours in agreement with the latest IVCN intensity consensus. After that time, Cristobal will be moving over cooler waters and into a higher shear environment, which should result in the system losing tropical characteristics in about 3 days. However, as this occurs the global models show Cristobal moving in a favorable position for baroclinic intensification ahead of a mid-latitude trough. This should result in Cristobal transitioning to a powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic late in the period. The initial motion estimate is 010/10, as Cristobal is currently being pulled slowly northward by the mid/upper-level trough situated east of Florida. During the next day or so Cristobal will begin moving north-northeastward around the western side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. Then the cyclone should accelerate into the mid-latitude westerlies during the remainder of the forecast period. Overall, the track model guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario. The new NHC track has been shifted a little to the west, or left, of the previous one through 48 hours and lies along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. After that time, the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 27.2N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 29.4N 71.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 31.9N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 33.9N 69.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 36.4N 65.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 43.0N 51.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 30/1200Z 50.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1200Z 58.0N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-26 16:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA TOMORROW... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 27.2, -71.7 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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