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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 29

2015-06-04 10:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040843 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2015 The cloud pattern of Andres is deteriorating quickly this morning with the center of circulation becoming exposed well to the west of the dissipating deep convection. The ambiguity solution of an earlier 0222 UTC ISS-RapidScat pass showed a few believable 45 kt winds to the northeast of the surface center. Since that time, however, the deep convection in that particular area has decreased in coverage and the cloud tops have warmed considerably. Therefore, the initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt for this advisory, and also agrees with a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Since Andres is forecast to remain over sub-24 degrees Celsius waters and within a harsh vertical shear environment, the cyclone is expected to weaken and become a remnant low in 24 hours or less. The NHC intensity forecast, which is similar to the IVCN consensus, calls for Andres to further weaken and become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 4 days. Andres has barely moved during the past 6 hours, and appears to be drifting northeastward with an initial motion of 045/2 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn gradually eastward later today and then east-southeastward tonight within a weak low to mid-level steering current. For the remaining portion of the forecast, the low is expected to gradually accelerate and move toward the southeast within the peripheral flow of Hurricane Blanca situated several hundred miles to its east. The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ISS-RapidScat overpass, which showed a slightly larger extent of tropical-storm-force winds over the northeast quadrant, and a smaller area over the southern semi-circle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 20.2N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 20.2N 124.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 19.9N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 19.5N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 18.0N 122.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

2015-06-04 10:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 040842 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Summary for Tropical Storm ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)

2015-06-04 10:42:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ANDRES WEAKENING QUICKLY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jun 4 the center of ANDRES was located near 20.2, -124.9 with movement NE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 29

2015-06-04 10:42:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 040842 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 124.9W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 124.9W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 125.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 124.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.9N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.0N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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