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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics
2015-06-03 05:04:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2015 02:47:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2015 03:04:48 GMT
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 24
2015-06-03 04:46:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030246 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 Andres continues to weaken this evening as it moves over sea surface temperatures of 25C. Although the vertical wind shear is light, several recent microwave images suggest that the system is no longer vertically stacked, with the mid-level center located north of the low-level center. The initial intensity is reduced to 70 kt as a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and this could be a little generous. The initial motion is now estimated to be 305/7. There is little change to either the track forecast philosophy or the forecast guidance since the previous advisory. A developing break in the mid-level tropospheric ridge to the north of the cyclone should induce Andres to turn northward and decelerate during the next 24 hours. After that time, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn eastward and east-southeastward as Hurricane Blanca to the southeast becomes the dominant steering influence. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast. A combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, increasing vertical wind shear, and dry air entrainment should cause Andres to quickly weaken. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or less, a tropical depression in about 36 hours, and a remnant low in about 48 hours. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 120 hours as it gets closer to Hurricane Blanca. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.6N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.2N 124.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.8N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.8N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.8N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 19.5N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 18.5N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2015-06-03 04:46:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030245 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-06-03 04:45:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES CONTINUING TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 the center of ANDRES was located near 18.6, -124.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 24
2015-06-03 04:45:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030245 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 ...ANDRES CONTINUING TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 124.2W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 124.2 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Wednesday, followed by a slow motion toward the east Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Andres is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight and a tropical depression by Thursday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Andres are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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