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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 21
2015-06-02 10:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020839 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 ...ANDRES HEADED TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 122.2W ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 122.2 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Andres is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Andres are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics
2015-06-02 05:09:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2015 02:35:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2015 03:04:45 GMT
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-06-02 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020234 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 Satellite imagery shows that the coverage and intensity of central deep convection are gradually decreasing, especially over the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. In addition, the eye has become much less apparent. The initial wind speed is set at 100 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers. Andres will soon be crossing the 26 deg C SST isotherm while continuing to interact with a drier and more stable air mass. These environmental factors should cause continued weakening, and the cyclone is likely to drop below hurricane strength within 36 hours or less. The NHC wind forecast closely follows the intensity model consensus. Andres is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 96 hours, but some of the guidance indicates that this event will occur sooner than that. After jogging to the left earlier today, Andres has now jogged to the right. Smoothing out the jogs yields an initial motion of 300/7 kt. The mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually break down over the next couple of days, and this should induce Andres to turn toward the northwest and north. Afterwards, a mid-level trough digs over the cyclone, but Andres should have become a shallower system and be steered slowly eastward by the weaker lower-level flow. The official forecast is very close to the latest Florida State University Superensemble track through 48 hours and close to the multi-model consensus after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.6N 121.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.3N 122.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.4N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 19.3N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 20.4N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 20.4N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 20.3N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2015-06-02 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020234 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0300 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-06-02 04:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES REMAINS ON A WEAKENING TREND... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 the center of ANDRES was located near 16.6, -121.4 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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