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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 22
2015-06-02 16:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 ...ANDRES WEAKENS SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 122.9W ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 122.9 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected on Wednesday night followed by a gradual turn toward the east-northeast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Andres is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Andres are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics
2015-06-02 10:47:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2015 08:47:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2015 08:39:43 GMT
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 21
2015-06-02 10:46:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020846 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 Satellite data indicate that Andres continues to weaken. The deep convection has become less symmetric and the eye is no longer apparent. A blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB yield an initial intensity of 90 kt. The hurricane will be moving over sea surface temperatures of less than 26 degrees Celsius very soon, and into a drier and more stable environment. These unfavorable conditions will cause steady weakening, and Andres is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm within 24 hours, and become a post-tropical cyclone in 72 hours, if not sooner. The global models suggest that the circulation will become an open trough in about 5 days, and the official forecast follows suit by calling for dissipation by 120 h. The initial motion estimate is 310/9 kt. The forecast reasoning from the previous advisory remains unchanged. A mid-level ridge to the north of Andres is forecast to shift eastward as a deepening mid-latitude trough approaches the west coast of the United States during the next couple of days. This should cause the tropical cyclone to move northwestward, then northward. After 48 hours, a weaker Andres is forecast to turn slowly eastward within the low-level flow. The new track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory, but shows a slightly faster eastward motion late in the period to be in better agreement with the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.2N 122.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.0N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.8N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 20.1N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.3N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 20.2N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2015-06-02 10:39:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020839 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-06-02 10:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES HEADED TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 2 the center of ANDRES was located near 17.2, -122.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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