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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 28
2015-06-04 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040243 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 Andres continues to generate a small area of convection to the northeast of the center despite being over sea surface temperatures near 24C. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory and a 45-kt satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. Cold water and increasing vertical wind shear should cause Andres to steadily weaken through the forecast period. The cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours, degenerate to a remnant low in about 36 hours, and dissipate completely after 96 hours. Andres has turned northward over the past several hours with the initial motion of 010/3. The cyclone is likely to be situated within a col region with little steering flow during the next 48 hours or so with only a slow motion expected. After that time, a somewhat faster motion toward the southeast or east-southeast should occur as the large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to the east becomes the main steering influence. The new forecast track has been nudged a little south of the previous track after 24 hours and lies near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 20.2N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.3N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.1N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 19.8N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 18.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 17.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-06-04 04:42:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES WEAKENING OVER OPEN PACIFIC WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Jun 3 the center of ANDRES was located near 20.2, -125.2 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Public Advisory Number 28
2015-06-04 04:42:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 040242 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 ...ANDRES WEAKENING OVER OPEN PACIFIC WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 125.2W ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 125.2 West. Andres is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A northeastward drift is expected tonight, followed by a southeastward drift Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Andres is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday and degenerate to a remnant low pressure area Thursday night or Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Andres are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Graphics
2015-06-03 23:09:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2015 20:34:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2015 21:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 27
2015-06-03 22:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032033 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 Despite the limited and diminishing deep convection associated with Andres, a 1304Z RapidScat scatterometer pass indicated at least 50 kt in the western - presumably the weaker - semicircle. Thus it appears that Andres was more intense earlier today than originally analyzed. Current subjective Dvorak and the ADT intensity estimates for Andres have dropped to 35-45 kt. Given the likely low bias indicated in the earlier Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. Andres should continue to be convectively challenged because it is anticipated to remain over cool water, embedded in dry stable air, and affected by increasingly strong vertical shear. Steady weakening is likely and the system should become a remnant low by Friday, if not earlier, and then dissipate in about five days. The official intensity forecast is based upon the multi-model variable intensity guidance - IVCN - and is unchanged from the previous advisory. Identifying the center of Andres this afternoon is quite straightforward as the center is exposed southwest of the remaining deep convection. The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest at 5 kt, primarily due to steering induced by a deep-layered ridge to its northeast. However, the cyclone will shortly be situated within a col region with little steering flow and Andres should meander on Thursday and Friday. In about three days, the remnant low of Andres should move east-southeastward as it gets swept up the by large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to its east. The official track forecast is based upon the multi-model variable track guidance - TVCN - of which the member models remain tightly clustered. This new track prediction lies just slightly south of that from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.9N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 20.1N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.0N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 19.9N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 17.9N 121.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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