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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics
2015-06-02 16:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2015 14:34:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2015 14:33:45 GMT
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-06-02 16:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021433 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 Andres continues to deteriorate this morning with the coldest cloud tops limited to the eastern portion of the cloud pattern. The initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt based on a blend of Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers of T4.0/5.0. Andres is traversing cooler sea surface temperatures of 25 degrees Celsius while the drier, stable, marine layer intruding from the northwest continues to adversely affect the inner-core convection. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus IVCN. Andres is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 72 hours, however some of the deterministic and ensemble models indicate an even faster rate of weakening. The initial motion estimate is 310/9 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Andres should gradually weaken over the next couple of days, causing Andres to turn toward the northwest and north. Through the latter portions of the period, Andres is forecast to turn slowly east-northeastward and drift within the weak low to mid-level steering current produced by the aforementioned deep-layer trough. There are no significant changes to the previous advisory and the NHC forecast is based on a blend of the TVCE model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) guidance. The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT-B overpass which showed a decreased extent of tropical-storm-force winds over the southeast and southwest quadrants than earlier estimated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.8N 122.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.6N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.5N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.1N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 19.9N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2015-06-02 16:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 021432 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 22
2015-06-02 16:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021432 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 122.9W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 122.9W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.6N 123.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.1N 124.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 19.9N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 122.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-06-02 16:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES WEAKENS SOME MORE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 2 the center of ANDRES was located near 17.8, -122.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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